An Active 2008 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season Ahead

Since the middle of 2007, global weather patterns have been influenced by La Nina, the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the Equatorial regions. Within the last month, ocean waters in the south-central Pacific Ocean have been warming, indicating that La Nina is weakening.

In the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, sea-surface temperatures are at near-normal levels, but warmer than average in the Gulf of Mexico. This recent rise in ocean temperatures would help intensify tropical storm development.

For the 2008 season, Harris-Mann Climatology predicts 18-21 named storms with twelve of them becoming hurricanes. Four of these potentially deadly storms are expected to become major hurricanes, reaching at least a Category 3 status.

The overall average is 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes during an entire season, which begins on June 1 and ends November 30.

In the eastern Pacific Ocean, above normal numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are expected as well.

The 2005 tropical storm and hurricane season was indeed the most active in recorded history. Named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters started to be logged in 1851. Up until 2005, the most active hurricane season ever seen was in 1933 with 21 storms reaching tropical storm status or greater. In 1995, there were 19 named storms. In 2005 and early 2006, we saw a record 27 named storms. Also, for the first time in history, the entire list of names were used so Greek letters were implemented ending with Hurricane Zeta, the strongest and most long-lasting January hurricane in recorded history.

As far as the number of hurricanes, the 2005 season also broke the record with 14 storms. Seven of these hurricanes were considered to be major. The previous record was 12 hurricanes in 1969. The 2005 hurricane season will go into the record books as the costliest ever, even topping the damage from Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Believe it or not, only three Category 5 storms have ever hit the U.S. Mainland over the last 100 years. These were Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992 and the Labor Day storm (no name) of 1935. Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 did reach Category 5 status, but weakened before they made landfall.

The effect of warmer sea-surface temperatures definitely plays a role on hurricane development. According to a recent Time Magazine article, between 1920 and 1970, ocean waters were warmer and hurricane activity was high. However, as sea-surface temperatures cooled in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, we saw a decrease in tropical storms and hurricanes. Since 1995, however, ocean waters have turned warmer than normal again leading to above average hurricane seasons, except during the big El Nino years of 1997 and 2002. In 2005, ocean water temperatures were as much as 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

In 2006, there were 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The number of named storms were slightly above normal in 2007. Last year, there were 15 named storms, including 6 hurricanes, which included two major storms.