Until the early to mid 2000s, global temperatures were more than a degree
Fahrenheit warmer when compared to the overall 20th Century mean. From
August of 2007 through February of 2008, the Earth's mean reading
dropped to near the 200-year average temperature of 57 degrees. Since
that time, the mean reading has been fluctuating.
(See Long-Term Chart Below.)
We, Cliff Harris and Randy Mann, believe that the warming and even the
cooling of global temperatures are the result of long-term climatic cycles,
solar activity, sea-surface temperature patterns and more. However,
Mankind's activities of the burning of fossil fuels, massive deforestations,
the replacing of grassy surfaces with asphalt and concrete, the 'Urban Heat
Island Effect,' are making conditions 'worse' and this will ultimately
enhance the Earth's warming process down the meteorological roadway in the
next several decades.
From the late 1940s through the early 1970s, a climate research
organization called the Weather Science Foundation of Crystal Lake,
Illinois, determined that the planet's warm, cold, wet and dry periods were
the result of alternating short-term and long-term climatic cycles. These
researchers and scientists also concluded that the Earth's ever-changing
climate likewise has influenced global and regional economies, human and
animal migrations, science, religion and the arts as well as shifting forms
of government and strength of leadership.
Much of this data was based upon thousands of hours of research done by
Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler and his associates during the 1930s and 1940s at
the University of Kansas. Dr. Wheeler was well-known for his discovery of
various climate cycles, including his highly-regarded '510-Year Drought
Clock' that he detailed at the end of the 'Dust Bowl' era in the late 1930s.
During the early 1970s, our planet was in the midst of a colder and drier
weather cycle. Inflationary recessions and oil shortages led to rationing
and long gas lines at service stations worldwide. The situation at that time
was far worse than it is now, at least for the time being.
The Weather Science Foundation also predicted, based on these various
climate cycles, that our planet would turn much warmer and wetter by the
early 2000s, resulting in general global prosperity. They also said that we
would be seeing at this time widespread weather 'extremes.' There's little
doubt that most of their early predictions came true.
Our recent decline in the Earth's temperature may be a combination of
both long-term and short-term climate cycles, decreased solar activity and
the development of a strong long-lasting La Nina, the current cooler than
normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean.
Sunspot activity since in the late 2000s has decreased to the lowest levels since
'The Little Ice Age' ended in the mid-to late 1800s. This "cool spell,"
though, may have only been a brief interruption to the Earth's overall warming
trend. Only time will tell.
Based on these predictions, it appears that much warmer readings may be
expected for Planet Earth, especially by the 2030s, that will eventually top
1998's global highest reading of 58.3 degrees. It's quite possible we could
see an average temperature in the low 60s.
We at Harris-Mann Climatology, www.LongRangeWeather.com, believe that our
prolonged cycle of wide weather 'extremes,' the worst in at least 1,000
years, will continue and perhaps become even more severe, especially by the
mid 2010s. We've already seen a huge, disastrous "Mega Storm" hit the East Coast
in late October of 2012. The Great Plains in 2012 saw the worst drought since the
'Dust Bowl Days' of the 1930s. Since the turn of the century, we've seen widespread flooding,
crop-destroying droughts and freezes and violent weather of all types
including ice storms, large-sized hail and torrential downpours.
The harsh conditions will likely lead to additional crop damage or losses
resulting in higher food prices. This has been already the case since 2011.
Dr. Wheeler also discovered that approximately every 102 years, a much
warmer and drier climatic cycle affects our planet. The last such 'warm and
dry' peak occurred in 1936, at the end of the infamous 'Dust Bowl' period.
During that time, extreme heat and dryness, combined with a multitude of
problems during the 'Great Depression,' made living conditions practically
The next 'warm and dry' climatic phase is scheduled to arrive in the
early 2030s, probably peaking around 2038. It is expected to produce even
hotter and drier weather patterns than we saw during the late 1990s and
But, we should remember, that the Earth's coldest periods have usually
followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the
Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden 'Little Ice
Age,' which peaked in the 17th Century.
By the end of this 21st Century, a cool down may occur that could
ultimately lead to expanding glaciers worldwide, even in the mid-latitudes.
Based on long-term climatic data, these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years.
The last extensive ice age was approximately 11,500 years ago,
so we may be due. Again, only time will tell.
Global temperature chart was complied by Climatologist Cliff Harris that
combined the following resources:
"Climate and the Affairs of Men" by Dr. Iben Browing.
"Climate...The Key to Understanding Business Cycles...The Raymond H.
Wheeler Papers. By Michael Zahorchak
Weather Science Foundation Papers in Crystal Lake, Illinois.