The latest sea-surface temperature data indicates that ocean temperatures off the West Coast of South America and along the Equatorial regions are only slightly below normal levels for the past week. Most cooler regions are about a degree Fahrenheit below normal with some isolated pockets of 2 to 3 degrees below average levels. Within the last several days, however, the area of cooler waters has expanded, but it looks like we’re still in a La Nada (in-between El Nino and La Nina) event, at least for now.
If the expansion continues for another 2-4 weeks, then we may be seeing a new La Nina by the late winter or early spring season.
By contrast, there are a few computer models that project that we may see a rebound to warmer sea-surface temperatures during around the by the mid portion of 2013. However, indications are building to a brief and weak La Nina event for the late winter and spring season. Toward the middle to the end of this year, the latest computer models project a good chance of additional cooling that would lead to a new or stronger La Nina sea-surface temperature phenomenon once again.
The La Nada event is being blamed, at least in part, to the record heat in southern Australia. On Monday, January 14, Australia had its hottest day on record with a nationwide temperature of 104.6 degrees Fahrenheit (40.33 Celsius), breaking the 1972 record of 104.3 degrees Fahrenheit (40.17 degrees Celsius). The searing temperatures led to over 200 wildfires across Australia’s southeastern region. Cooler conditions later in the week did bring some relief to area firefighters.
Ocean temperature are still below normal levels in the Gulf of Alaska. As these readings moderate, based on the current forecasts, moisture should increase in the dry areas of Great Plains over the next several months. This new pattern would likely shrink the major drought over the nation’s midsection during the spring season. In 2012, severe drought in this area has been classified one of the worst since the ‘Dust Bowl Days’ of the 1930s.
